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Welcome to Bayleys View January 2023


Characterised by global unrest and economic uncertainty, 2022 was a year of recalibration for the residential real estate sector.

While the 12 months prior saw Bayleys achieve its strongest-ever annual result across all property disciplines – including residential, lifestyle, rural and development sales –we look forward to a consistent level of activity into 2023.

Broadly speaking, the last eight months have proven challenging to predict from a macro perspective.

Has there been any time in history when we have observed such broad-based global volatility and factors colliding to such spectacular effect?

Geopolitical upheaval, a lingering global health crisis, an economic eddy with debt concerns and recessionary indicators complicated by climate change fears.

This has contributed to a redesign of market dynamics, reflected in the rapid change of pace observed across the wider property sector in Aotearoa, and sale volumes which have transitioned between peaks and valleys in record time.

Household budgets and investor balance sheets will inevitably be tested in 2023. But, as in every property cycle, opportunities remain, and I expect to see ambitious buyers maximising current market conditions to their advantage.

While no homeowner, buyer or seller, is immune to intense changes across the economic environment, bright spots remain on the residential horizon.

Affordability metrics improving for entry-level buyers is a prevailing good news story – particularly given the astonishing growth in residential values which pushed ownership out of reach for many over the last decade.

In addition, windfall gains collected by long-term homeowners mean they are well-positioned to manage increased mortgage lending rates and trade into homes that better reflect their lifestyles in a post-pandemic world.

This includes a regional push, where flexible work arrangements and greater choice on the market for sale have seen some Kiwis take flight from more expensive urban centres and into emerging communities.

With summer finally here and Pohutukawas in bloom, Bayleys salespeople note a refreshed and ready market sentiment, evidenced by the most in-demand segment being well-positioned holiday homes.

Owner-occupiers of all flavours - families, professionals and expatriate Kiwis returning home - continue to eye accessible properties in identified growth areas and Bayleys salespeople are seeing particular interest from purchasers captivated by legacy properties that will become the backdrop to summer celebrations for the many years to come.

Over the medium-term, economic conditions support a more measured approach to value growth. However, Kiwis are resilient and continue to demonstrate an enduring willingness to adapt to new settings, informed by the long-term benefits of home ownership and bricks-and-mortar investment.

For those considering their options or hunting for opportunities, Bayleys team members across the country - in any of our 96 offices - are on-call to assist with all of your property endeavours. We welcome your requests for more information about the material, properties and data contained within this bonus edition of Bayleys View.

Wishing you all a sensational start to this prosperous new year.

Johnny Sinclair

National Director - Residential

Bayleys Real Estate


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