See below a summary of the mega trends within New Zealand’s ‘Golden Triangle’, plus an outlook on the next 12 months for the market.

Mega Trends

Population growth underpins the Golden Triangle

Auckland has New Zealand’s largest population and Tauranga has the fastest growing. Hamilton’s population growth has been steady and is likely to benefit from spillover from Auckland.

Transport infrastructure enables business

Investment into road networks is progressively improving transport connectivity between the three regions. Freight volumes are enabled by large seaports in both Auckland and Tauranga, alongside inland ports and primary industries in Hamilton and the wider Waikato region. This connectivity enables a range of industrial activities, alongside demand for offices for service companies that support the wider economy.

Land squeeze in progress

Constrained supplies of zoned land, alongside geographic constraints, is pushing more industrial businesses to search across the Golden Triangle for suitable sites. Issue is most acute for Auckland and will likely lead to spillover demand in Hamilton.

Outlook for the next 12 months

Commercial property markets subdued

Lower sales volumes and downward pricing pressures are being witnessed nationally. Activity is expected to improve as yields stabilise at higher levels. Leasing activity is expected to remain robust, particularly for industrial premises.

Follow the money

The large population base means the Golden Triangle will likely continue to receive large investment into infrastructure. This will enable more development across both housing and commercial property markets.

Migration boom to boost demand

The post-pandemic surge in migration will support further population growth. Migrants have historically tended to locate into the Auckland region first, but tight rental markets and higher housing costs may push them into the regions. Hamilton and Tauranga will likely benefit due to their employment opportunities, alongside proximity to Auckland.

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